Rai Forecast: How Likely/Much

[Bill Davy]

According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?

Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain). In the latter case, I might water.

Basically, should I water anyway?

Bill

[Stewart Robert Hinsley]

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain).  In the latter case, I might water.
Basically, should I water anyway?
Bill

The percentage figure doesn't include anything about the amount of rain.
(Here we have a forecast of 90% chance of heavy rain for 8pm, with 70%
chance of light rain for most of the rest of the evening.)

The ambiguity is whether the percentage figure is the chance that it
will be raining at the specified time, or the chance it will rain at
some time within a one hour timeslot. For an organised rain band, which
I think is what we're expecting for this evening, there's not much
difference, but for showers there is.

[The Natural Philosopher]

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain).  In the latter case, I might water.
Basically, should I water anyway?
Bill

Ignoring the forecasts and looking at the charts there are a pair of
fronts ripping across the whole country - tattered remnants of a
hurricane I think - so we will all get rain 100%

How much is down to local topography.

High and west ? a lot. Flat and east, not so much.

[Chris Hogg]

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain). In the latter case, I might water.
Basically, should I water anyway?
Bill

As you have discovered, the Met Office for any particular region
merely tells you the 'chance of precipitation'. It tells you nothing
about whether that precipitation will be a brief light drizzle or a
downpour lasting the whole period.

If you want to know whether you need to water, dig a little hole with
a trowel and examine the dampness of the soil a few inches down. If
it's damp, I wouldn't bother, but if still dry down there, think about
watering.

What were you going to water? If shrubs, water each one individually
rather than watering the whole bed. And be generous. Lots of water
occasionally is better than a little sprinkle frequently, which just
wets the surface and draws the roots upwards. If a lawn, remember that
grass is surprisingly resilient and will recover even though looking a
bit brown.

[RJH]

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain). In the latter case, I might water.

https://www.windy.com

[Vir Campestris]

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain).  In the latter case, I might water.
Basically, should I water anyway?
Bill

You'll find me over in uk.rec.sailing which is why I look at the weather
forecasts on windguru.cz

You'll have to find a sailing club near your, but it will usually give
you 4 different weather models which include their best guess for how
much rain there will be.

Right now I see dry on Weds, and it will rain on Thurs. But as there
will be only 0.1mm it's not enough to do any good. Up in Scotland there
are spots that will get 18mm by Thursday morning...

Andy

[Bill Davy]

Post by Vir Campestris

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but
is that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain).  In the latter case, I might water.
Basically, should I water anyway?
Bill

You'll find me over in uk.rec.sailing which is why I look at the weather
forecasts on windguru.cz
You'll have to find a sailing club near your, but it will usually give
you 4 different weather models which include their best guess for how
much rain there will be.
Right now I see dry on Weds, and it will rain on Thurs. But as there
will be only 0.1mm it's not enough to do any good. Up in Scotland there
are spots that will get 18mm by Thursday morning...
Andy

That is really useful. https://www.windguru.cz/162472 is Bristol (near
enough). Bookmarked!

Many thanks.

Another use for sailors ;-)

Bill

[Vir Campestris]

Post by Vir Campestris
You'll find me over in uk.rec.sailing which is why I look at the
weather forecasts on windguru.cz
You'll have to find a sailing club near your, but it will usually give
you 4 different weather models which include their best guess for how
much rain there will be.
Right now I see dry on Weds, and it will rain on Thurs. But as there
will be only 0.1mm it's not enough to do any good. Up in Scotland
there are spots that will get 18mm by Thursday morning...
Andy

That is really useful.  https://www.windguru.cz/162472 is Bristol (near
enough).  Bookmarked!
Many thanks.
Another use for sailors ;-)

And none of the 4 models predicted we'd get 10mm today... I was watering
a few days back, and wouldn't have bothered.

Andy

[David]

Post by Bill Davy
According to www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast, >90% at ~9PM, but is
that a shower or proper rain?
Does anyone have a prediction for the amount of rain, including the
likelihood (70% chance of 10 mm rain is very different to 7% chance of
100 mm rain). In the latter case, I might water.
Basically, should I water anyway?
Bill

Yellow warning for the early hours of Saturday.
I do hope we get some as the sugar beet fields look very parched.

Cheers



Dave R